Friday, October 31, 2008
What??!??
Is the woman really this friggin stupid? Has she ever actaully read the constitution? She might consider boning up on it between now and 2012.
And now, the end is near...
96 hours. At least that's what they are saying on the news. Hope springs eternal for the McCain camp as some polls tighten but looking at the electoral map it's a huge uphill task. To repeat, if Obama wins in PA forget it. McCain would have to win all the toss ups and NH just to pull out a tie. We could see a close popular vote and an electoral landslide.
I watched the Obama Infomercial the other night and was very impressed. Obviously it was a slick production but what he said and who he was talking to was hugely important. I believe he connected with the middle class, he showed how he was like them. Difference is something the McCain campaign has been trying to hammer home in the last couple of weeks. They can deny, deny, deny but the proof is in the pudding. People carrying monkey dolls with Obama stickers on them, Joe the Idiot saying Obama wants to destroy Israel, and on and on. One site I frequent referred to the paid spot as an 'Afromercial'
and then had the gall to wonder why someone might think such a comment was racist. Gee I don't know...because it is?
I watched the Obama Infomercial the other night and was very impressed. Obviously it was a slick production but what he said and who he was talking to was hugely important. I believe he connected with the middle class, he showed how he was like them. Difference is something the McCain campaign has been trying to hammer home in the last couple of weeks. They can deny, deny, deny but the proof is in the pudding. People carrying monkey dolls with Obama stickers on them, Joe the Idiot saying Obama wants to destroy Israel, and on and on. One site I frequent referred to the paid spot as an 'Afromercial'
and then had the gall to wonder why someone might think such a comment was racist. Gee I don't know...because it is?
Monday, October 27, 2008
150k for clothes?
How much should we really care about this?
Ultimately it doesn't really matter that much that Palin has spent (or had spent on her behalf) 150k on clothing for the race. A candidate has to look good. This is really much ado about nothing, but so are the complaints that the kerfuffle is somehow sexist. Was it sexist when the GOP seized on the fact that John Edwards spent $400.00 on a haircut? No. It was just stupid.
The only reasons any of this matters is because the GOP has spent much of this campaign trying to make Sarah Palin into Jane Sixpack and they've tried to paint Obama as an elitist. Guess what folks, anyone running for president is elite. Heck, they'd better be.
Ultimately it doesn't really matter that much that Palin has spent (or had spent on her behalf) 150k on clothing for the race. A candidate has to look good. This is really much ado about nothing, but so are the complaints that the kerfuffle is somehow sexist. Was it sexist when the GOP seized on the fact that John Edwards spent $400.00 on a haircut? No. It was just stupid.
The only reasons any of this matters is because the GOP has spent much of this campaign trying to make Sarah Palin into Jane Sixpack and they've tried to paint Obama as an elitist. Guess what folks, anyone running for president is elite. Heck, they'd better be.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
12 days
and it will all be over. It's looking more and more like Obama will win this thing, what's been truly disturbing though has been the racial tenor of the campaign in the last week or so. People showing up at McCain/Palin rallies with monkey dolls with Obama stickers on them...republican groups using mailings with Obama's image alongside fried chicken and watermelon...disgusting, but at least those instances have been fairly limited.
The more and more I look at the polls the more I am beginning to think we are in line for an electoral landslide. As it stands all Obama has to do is hold onto what are considered states that are "Leaning" towards him and he'll easily top 300 electoral votes and maybe get over 320. GOBAMA!
The more and more I look at the polls the more I am beginning to think we are in line for an electoral landslide. As it stands all Obama has to do is hold onto what are considered states that are "Leaning" towards him and he'll easily top 300 electoral votes and maybe get over 320. GOBAMA!
Monday, October 20, 2008
The final weeks...
It's been quite some time since I have posted on this blog. For some reason today I took a look at my last post, funny how I was pretty well spot on. Shortly after that I recall talking to friends about the potential of an Obama/Biden ticket. I voted for Biden back in '88 in the NH primary and even through some of his issues over the years I've always been very impressed with Joe. He's a good guy and about as bright as they come in regards to foreign policy.
The race appears to be tightening a bit with the latest polls showing Obama with a slight 5% lead. While that isn't great news after being up nearly 9 a week and a half ago, I'm not super worried yet. The key to this thing is the battle ground states. Obama looks to be holding all the blue states and has some leads in big swing states. McCain looks like he needs to flip a state and I don't see that happening. While we might see a 5-7% win I expect the electoral spread will be much greater.
The race appears to be tightening a bit with the latest polls showing Obama with a slight 5% lead. While that isn't great news after being up nearly 9 a week and a half ago, I'm not super worried yet. The key to this thing is the battle ground states. Obama looks to be holding all the blue states and has some leads in big swing states. McCain looks like he needs to flip a state and I don't see that happening. While we might see a 5-7% win I expect the electoral spread will be much greater.
Friday, January 4, 2008
Long time no post...Iowa!
Wow, big night on both sides. While anyone finishing behind will tell you it's early and it's only one state, the results last night do tell a story. Obama finishing in first going away is BIG! He has become the candidate of hope and change in the democratic party and democrats are nothing if not romantics about their politics. I think this big win will grow into a win in NH and that will lead to a string of victories and the nomination. It's not inevitable, just my feeling. Let's break down the rest of the field on the Dem side:
Hillary- She can say what ever she wants, but finishing third has to hurt. She needs a win in NH. If she loses she won't go away, but it makes the task harder. I can't see her winning in SC but I can see some victories for her in several of the Feb 5th states, but without a win going into those states she will be fighting against a candidate with huge momentum.
Edwards- He ran a good campaign in Iowa, the problem is he's been running it since 2004. Finishing a distant 2nd has got to hurt. He has very little money and isn't likely to finish better than third..if he finishes in third by double digits to Hillary than he should just call it a day and hope for a life as party chairman or something.
Richardson-...he's done, but he could play spoiler in NH. I don't think it's likely, but if he can somehow finish ahead of Edwards he will have effectively killed the Senators hopes and likely will end that campaign. What would that mean to the rest of the race? I think it would be then end for Hillary. I think that most of Edwards supporters would be far more likely to support Obama than Sen. Clinton.
How about the republicans? Well, I don't see Huckabee winning the nomination, but his victory is significant. The fact that McCain didn't run helped him in the sense that Iowan voters were looking for someone other than Romney to vote for and they found him. Unfortunately for the former Governor of Arkansas, NH voters aren't likely to run to a socially conservative, evangelical Christian at the polls. Fully expect Romney to lose to McCain...I think it could be a big loss too. NH is often full of surprises. What are their futures?
Huckabee- Great win in Iowa...NH is a lost cause, he likely finishes 4th behind McCain, Romney, Thompson and maybe even Paul. If he hopes to rebound he'll need a strong finish in SC (2nd). It's possible, after all it is a state with deep religious roots. He'd be better off spending the next 5 days using his victory in Iowa to raise money and leave NH alone.
Romney- I honestly can't see him winning in NH...he likely would have lost a gubernatorial race in MA had he run for another term. He really only won previously because the dems had really weak candidates. He's a flim-flam artist of the highest degree. He's too slick and not very likable, not the kind of candidate NH voters like.
McCain- A win in NH will do his campaign wonders. He is the current comeback kid and I can see him riding a NH wave all the way to the nomination. The GOP isn't about change, it's about status quo and let's face it, any party that would nominate Bob Dole truly believes in taking turns.
Thompson- On many right wing blogs he's referred to as the guy dems fear most...really? Fred Thompson? The guy who looks like a broken in LL Bean boot? They are right about one thing, he has the best conservative bonfides of anyone running, but the problem is he doesn't seem to really want the job...he's running because he's qualified...ok, great...technically I'm qualified, but I don't want the job. If you don't want it you shouldn't be running. How does he get the nod? He'll need to win in SC. He's not running hard in NH (big mistake, had he campaigned hard there he could have snagged 2nd place), so a big finish in the south and in some of the feb 5th states is vital. If he finishes behind Paul in NH he should euthanize his campaign.
If I had to pick now I'd guess a general election of Obama v. McCain but the is the hardest race to call in recent memory.
Hillary- She can say what ever she wants, but finishing third has to hurt. She needs a win in NH. If she loses she won't go away, but it makes the task harder. I can't see her winning in SC but I can see some victories for her in several of the Feb 5th states, but without a win going into those states she will be fighting against a candidate with huge momentum.
Edwards- He ran a good campaign in Iowa, the problem is he's been running it since 2004. Finishing a distant 2nd has got to hurt. He has very little money and isn't likely to finish better than third..if he finishes in third by double digits to Hillary than he should just call it a day and hope for a life as party chairman or something.
Richardson-...he's done, but he could play spoiler in NH. I don't think it's likely, but if he can somehow finish ahead of Edwards he will have effectively killed the Senators hopes and likely will end that campaign. What would that mean to the rest of the race? I think it would be then end for Hillary. I think that most of Edwards supporters would be far more likely to support Obama than Sen. Clinton.
How about the republicans? Well, I don't see Huckabee winning the nomination, but his victory is significant. The fact that McCain didn't run helped him in the sense that Iowan voters were looking for someone other than Romney to vote for and they found him. Unfortunately for the former Governor of Arkansas, NH voters aren't likely to run to a socially conservative, evangelical Christian at the polls. Fully expect Romney to lose to McCain...I think it could be a big loss too. NH is often full of surprises. What are their futures?
Huckabee- Great win in Iowa...NH is a lost cause, he likely finishes 4th behind McCain, Romney, Thompson and maybe even Paul. If he hopes to rebound he'll need a strong finish in SC (2nd). It's possible, after all it is a state with deep religious roots. He'd be better off spending the next 5 days using his victory in Iowa to raise money and leave NH alone.
Romney- I honestly can't see him winning in NH...he likely would have lost a gubernatorial race in MA had he run for another term. He really only won previously because the dems had really weak candidates. He's a flim-flam artist of the highest degree. He's too slick and not very likable, not the kind of candidate NH voters like.
McCain- A win in NH will do his campaign wonders. He is the current comeback kid and I can see him riding a NH wave all the way to the nomination. The GOP isn't about change, it's about status quo and let's face it, any party that would nominate Bob Dole truly believes in taking turns.
Thompson- On many right wing blogs he's referred to as the guy dems fear most...really? Fred Thompson? The guy who looks like a broken in LL Bean boot? They are right about one thing, he has the best conservative bonfides of anyone running, but the problem is he doesn't seem to really want the job...he's running because he's qualified...ok, great...technically I'm qualified, but I don't want the job. If you don't want it you shouldn't be running. How does he get the nod? He'll need to win in SC. He's not running hard in NH (big mistake, had he campaigned hard there he could have snagged 2nd place), so a big finish in the south and in some of the feb 5th states is vital. If he finishes behind Paul in NH he should euthanize his campaign.
If I had to pick now I'd guess a general election of Obama v. McCain but the is the hardest race to call in recent memory.
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Rove investigated?
This bears some watching. Hopefully the investigation will turn up the kind of things we all know have been going on, ie WH involvement in the NH phone jamming scandal, and all of the "lost" emails in the US Attorney scandal. We'll see.
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